KWANG POON
Geopolitical Strategist
The Chagos tragicomedy is conjuring up Sergio Leone’s spaghetti western trilogy. Some years back, observers stated that Chagos was a giveaway for ‘A Fistful of Dollars’, even displaying a ‘receipt’ as proof. Now, the UK, US and India are all pushing to convince us to take back the Chagos with a Godfather-like deal that one cannot refuse. Ironically, Mauritius appears in no hurry to recuperate its territory and seems content to have kept the moral high ground with the Chagos clearly marked as Mauritian territory on all UN maps [1].
Mauritian DPM Bérenger has hinted that the money might be too little. In fact, ‘Le Mauricien’ daily reported in our beautiful Creole that ‘Angle pe pinaye pou enn gro ti kas’, hereby employing an oxymoronic rhetorical device for effect.
True to himself, incoming Mauritian PM Ramgoolam, in his trademark ‘classy style’, stated in the National Assembly that the draft deal would not produce the expected benefits for the Nation. ‘For a Few Dollars More’, we can perhaps seal the deal, although an unnamed spokesperson from the Mauritius government clarified that ‘Chagos is not just about money, but also about sovereignty!”
These days, we are literally being inundated with ‘The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly’ about Chagos. Not a few days go by without us hearing about some new passionate positioning or savoury statements. At the end of the day, it is all about money, money, money and it’s so funny that outgoing Mauritian PM Jugnauth once declared that ‘it has never been about the money.’
How to Price the Most Important Island on the Planet?
This current conundrum thus begs the question: “How much is Chagos worth?” For what it is worth, the latest of the Chagos leaks indicated that the asking price is allegedly GBP 800 million per year, or just slightly over USD 1 billion, representing 6.5% of the GDP of Mauritius.
GBN did not hesitate to call out the figure as ‘crazy money.’ Immediately, Port Louis riposted against the ridiculous rumour, but then went on to spell out a counter proposal anew that takes into account reparations, arrears, interests and inflation.
In the meantime, a senior official in the newly-elected Trump administration even went so far as to describe “Chagos as the most important island on the Planet!” [2] Now, why on Earth is Diego Garcia now the most valuable piece of real estate on the Planet and how much money can one get from renting such a piece of land?
One can write one whole paper on just the strategic significance of Diego Garcia and the role it played during the Cold War, China-India War, Operation Desert Storm and so on. In today’s geopolitical jargon parlance, let us just summarize by saying that Diego Garcia occupies an irreplaceable locus within the Indo-Pacific security architecture.
Djibouti and Other Military Bases
Another way to evaluate the worth of Diego Garcia is to investigate how much other countries are paying for military bases around the world. Through such a survey, we may arrive at the ‘market value’ for such a deal.
Obviously, this kind of information is typically classified and not easy to come by. However, there are rules that confirm the exception with some figures having found their way into the public domain.
For Camp Lemonnier base in Djibouti, a 10-year lease extension with the option to add for another ten years was struck back in 2014 at a cost of $63 million [3] annually. It is worth noting that the new figure is twice the amount paid previously.
There are also cases whereby a country actually pays the USA to maintain a military base in their territory. In order to seek protection against China, South Korea and Japan annually contribute $1.7 billion and $1 billion respectively under defense agreements with the US. Similarly, Taiwan makes multi-billion procurement of military equipment from the US as part of the deal encapsulated by the Taiwan Relations Act.
US Military Budget
Another way to approach this burning question is to examine the ability to pay. The UK has been painting itself as the poor parent who is even having difficulties to pay its own bills. Therefore, it would not be surprising that the bill would ultimately find its way to the Pentagon, which is the ultimate beneficiary, so to speak.
So how big is the US Defense Budget? According to published data by the US government, for fiscal year 2024, the DoD’s spending flirted with $2 trillion, representing 16.3% of the US Federal Budget.
Therefore, $1 billion would represent only 0.05% of the US annual defense budget. Metaphorically speaking, the lease for Diego Garcia would amount to a drop in the ocean.
Destroyers-for-Bases and Polaris Deals
The UK and US have a history of swapping bases for weapons. During WWII, UK PM Winston Churchill asked US President Franklin Roosevelt to loan forty to fifty older destroyers. At that point in history, the German U-boats threatened vital supplies for the British.
Thus, after several rounds of negotiations, the US got bases in Antigua, Bahamas, Bermuda, British Guiana, Newfoundland, St Lucia and Trinidad on a 99-year lease [5]. In return, the UK got fifty WWI-era destroyers – though a little outdated – provided an invaluable boost to the fighting ability and morale of the British. Looking back, this deal cemented the ‘special relationship’ between the UK and USA.
Fast forward to the pre-independence years of Mauritius, similar talks took place over Chagos. Based on documents that have been declassified, the Chagos Deal between the UK and USA involved making available the Polaris missile to the UK. The Polaris missile is a Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile (SLBM) and represented the nec plus ultra in terms of nuclear deterrence during the Cold War era.
Agalega-for-Metro Deal
More recently, we have the Agalega deal with India. Although the Mauritian government has been hiding behind the Non-Disclosure Agreement (NDA) in order not to reveal the nitty-gritty of the deal, some piquant particulars have come out of the closet [4].
It would appear Agalega was basically a quid pro quo for the Metro Express, with a few extra goodies thrown in for good measure. Instead of getting paid handsomely for such a critical foothold in the geostrategic space of the Indian Ocean, we only got a loan for the Metro Express. India is surely laughing all the way to the bank with the deal of the century!
Hyperbolizing the China Threat in IOR
At the moment, China has bigger fish to fry in the East China Sea and South China Sea. Its navy is thus geared towards near-coast operations and China does not yet possess blue water capabilities to be a match for the US.
Should the Taiwan issue be resolved, then China may shift its attention and assets to the Indian Ocean. After all, the Indian Ocean is the passage obligé for the most significant maritime trade routes of China.
Nevertheless, those opposing the Chagos deal could not resist grossly exaggerating the China threat. In any case, India would frown upon and put its weight against any encroachment upon its SAGAR by China’s Maritime Silk Road.
This brings up another burning question, to what length is the Tiger willing to go to keep the Dragon out of its backyard? Perhaps, a renegotiation of the Metro deal might shed some light on this touchy topic.
Responsible Actor on the Right Side of International Law
It is clear that Diego Garcia is a key piece of the global security network of the Western world. It helps to keep China and Russia in check and contributes to maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific (FOIP) [6].
Resolving the Chagos issue in accordance with international laws would put the US and UK in a better stead vis-à-vis the rest of the world, and Africa in particular. As President Biden stated during his visit in Angola, “The future of the world lies in Africa.” [7]. It is worth highlighting that the African Union has unwaveringly stood in solidarity with Mauritius to support the decolonization process.
The Art of the Deal
Allow me to answer the billion-dollar question with another question: “How much is world domination worth?” Or to put it another way, “How much is the UK or USA prepared to pay for the cornerstone in their strategy to ensure unsurpassed hegemony?”
On the one hand, the UK and USA have to deal with hassle and aggravation for disdainfully disregarding international law. On the other hand, they have a unique opportunity to right a historical wrong and make amends for a colonial faux pas.
Mauritius has its Africa Strategy and seeks to position itself as the top offshore financial centre on the continent. On the other hand, the UK has its Global Britain while the USA leads the Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII), with both programmes having Africa as a key region of interest.
Therefore, it would serve the interests of all sides to arrive at a consensus whereby Mauritius would consolidate its position as the preferred International Financial Centre for Africa thanks to PGII and Global Britain routing more investments into Africa via the Mauritius jurisdiction.
As always, the glass is both half-full or half-empty depending on one’s perspective. The Chagos issue could sour our negotiations with the UK/US, or the relationship could enter into a new honeymoon with Africa as the icing on the cake.
January 2025
References
- Poon, Kwang. Disentangling the Chagossian Gordian Knot. Le Mauricien. 24 Jul 2020
- Ramgutty, Anita. The Most Important Island on the Planet. Le Mauricien. 25 Nov 2024
- Al-Jazeera. US Secures 10-Year Deal for Djibouti Base. 6 May 2024
- Bashfield, Samuel. Agalega: A Glimpse of India’s Remote Island Military Base. Lowy Institute. 2 Mar 2021
- Greenberg, Daniel. US Destroyers for British Bases: Fifty Old Ships Go to War. USNI Proceedings 88/11. Nov 1962
- Labh, Nitya. Why Diego Garcia Matters. A dispute over a tiny island in the Indian Ocean presents complications for US goals in the Indo-Pacific. Foreign Policy. 30 May 2024
- GBC. “The Future of the World Lies in Africa,“ Declares Biden in Angola. 5 Dec 2024