Kwang Poon
Geopolitical Strategist
Done Deal
In an OpEd published in the Forum Page of Le Mauricien on 24 July 2020, I concluded my piece on the Chagos that the writing is already on the wall …
Over many years, decades even, little material progress was made on the Chagos case. It was when the discourse was elevated to the geopolitical level that the protagonists started to see eye to eye when the tête-à-tête started zeroing in towards the nexus of the issue. As the stakeholders reached a shared Mahanian view over Chagos and the Indian Ocean, the pathway towards a solution was set whereby each party gets what it is actually after.
Once the agreement in principle over the perpetuation of the unhindered operation of the vital military base of Diego Garcia became an acquis, the mechanical gears locked into place to push the machinery forward.
Tilt towards Indian Ocean
The unsolicited but welcome offer from Mauritius to table an emphyteutic lease provided extra certainty and predictability that the USA was longing for, because the geostrategic importance of Diego Garcia is ever so relevant in the context of the G2 rivalry. Control the waters of one of the most dynamic and strategic oceans means control of global trade and access to wealth.
As a matter of fact, in February 2023, the Stimson Center issued a Policy Memo regarding the need to rebalance the Indo-Pacific Strategy more towards the Indian Ocean in view of its geostrategic importance.
No later than last week, India also announced that the operationalization of its Agalega base is expected by the end of 2023. Thus, in conjunction with the base in Oman, India is gradually weaving a network of bases in the Indian Ocean in order to enhance its Maritime Domain Awareness (MDA) in its ‘backyard.’
India is fully aware of the geostrategic value of Mauritius and plans to use this as a bargaining chip with the USA, which is bent on containing China as the Chinese closes the technological and military gaps in the race to be the Global Overlord.
Flurry of Meetings
In the margins of the G20 Summit in New Delhi from 9 to 10 September 2023, Mauritian PM Pravind Jugnauth and UK PM Rishi Sunak had a bilateral.
Since the end of 2022, Mauritius and UK have had four round of negotiations. The first round took place from 23 to 24 November 2022. The 2nd round took place from 11 to 12 January 2023. The 3rd round occurred from 23 to 24 February 2023 and the 4th round happened from 2 to 3 June 2023. A 5th round is expected soon.
On the sidelines of the 78th United Nations General Assembly (UNGA78) in New York, PM Pravind Jugnauth met with US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Verma. It is worth recalling that Undersecretary Verma paid an official visit to Mauritius at the end of May 2023 and took part in the groundbreaking ceremony for the new US Embassy Complex to be built at an astronomical cost of $300 million.
Needless to say, at both these timely and critical meetings, the issue of Chagos featured prominently during the discussions.
Ruthless transaction
While the UNGA78 was going on, former British PM Boris Johnson published an OpEd in the Daily Mail which stressed the ‘ruthless transactional’ nature of International Relations as I had outlined in my other piece on ‘Recalibrating our Foreign Policy in the New Era of Multipolarity’ dated 3 August 2023.
In his tribune, Boris Johnson revealed the rationale behind the UK’s desperate but doomed attempt to hold on to the ‘unsinkable aircraft carrier in the Indian Ocean’. In particular, he wrote: “The US-UK relationship, as we all know, is caring, sharing and loving, but also ruthlessly transactional; the Chagos archipelago matters to this relationship … The Americans don’t give us crucial nuclear secrets just because they love little old England. They don’t share intelligence because they adore our quaint accents. We have a great and indispensable relationship because we have important things to offer, including Diego Garcia.”
I have already undertaken an analysis of this line of thought along the Realist-Romanticist Scale. Johnson frames the same issue across the Transactional vs Emotional Poles. As we all know, the majority of Americans are of British descent which explains why both British and Americans share the common language of English with some variations in accent and orthography.
Rather than relying on the emotional chord in the hope that the US would sustain the ‘special treatment’ to its transatlantic brethren, Boris Johnson realizes that losing Chagos would curtail the bargaining power of the UK.
Resettlement plan
As for the question of resettlement, it is safe to say that without sustainable economic activity, it would be practically difficult to eke out a living. Coconut plantation only provides subsistence living and may not be that attractive anyway.
Evidently, the Resettlement Plan will have to be elaborated in close consultations with Chagossians and the Americans. The Chagossians are mainly scattered in the UK, Seychelles and Mauritius.
Some have expressed the wish to return to their ancestral land. Some would rather migrate or stay in the UK. Others have been able to carve out a new life in their new place of adoption and are quite happy where they are now. Different groups thus have different expectations and the decision to resettle is ultimately a personal one.
Potential gains for Mauritius
However, if some of the isles on the Chagos Archipelago were to be developed into a high-end exclusive resort in line with the current trend towards green and sustainable tourism, the eco-tourism project could perhaps provide an interesting option.
In addition, the Marine Protected Area (MPA) project can be revived, monetized and sustained in harmony with eco-tourism activities. The Chagos Archipelago is one of the last places in the world which still boasts some of the pristine beaches and crystal lagoons that have evaded human interference due to strict security surrounding the military base.
Obviously, there is the possibility of working on the military base itself but certain jobs might require a certain level of technical competence or even a security clearance. Alternatively, Mauritius could supply food and other goods to the Diego Garcia base.
From a Maritime Security perspective, the Diego Garcia military base could also play a central role in the fight against illegal trafficking of human or drugs and to curb IUU Fishing.
The Cutlass Express maritime exercises benefit from support from AFRICOM and from the advanced base of Diego Garcia. Similarly, in the event of maritime accidents, such as the Wakashio oil tanker shipwreck, the capabilities of the military base could come in handy.
Global Britain
Since Diego Garcia is the Jewel of the Crown in the Indo-Pacific Strategy, Boris Johnson makes the case that the loss of sovereignty over Diego Garcia will spell the doom of the budding ambitions of the UK to shine as Global Britain.
However, other countries started to take the rhetoric of the UK with a pinch of salt as it maintained its colonial vestiges. Actually, Johnson’s stance smacks of the sort of thinking reminiscent of the imperialist era of Great Britain.
The Golden Era of UK has peaked and the rise and fall of Empires is a natural evolution in the long course of human history when viewed over a timescale of centuries.
Just as in the 19th century, the rivalry between France and Britain impinged upon the destiny of Mauritius; in the 21st century, Mauritius remains the new darling of superpowers which are pulling all strings to rope it within their Sphere of Influence.
Dangling The China Threat
As is fashionable these days, the China Threat is either blown out of proportion or casually dismissed whereas a dispassionate and objective analysis might prove to be more useful.
Had Boris Johnson sought counsel from MI6, he would have probably taken cognizance of the fact that Mauritius is one of the brightest diamonds on the Necklace of Diamonds of India. To put things in perspective, if Mauritius is a ‘close ally of China’, then Mauritius is the ‘little brother’ of India.
At the moment, China has bigger fish to fry in the East China Sea or South China Sea before venturing full speed ahead into the Indian Ocean. That is not to say that the day will not come that China will need to schedule regular PLAN patrols in the Indian Ocean to ensure the security of its key trade routes with Africa and the Middle-East.
Stella Clavisque
Maris Indici
With Agalega and Chagos in the bag, Mauritius will now be able to reorient and deploy its statecraft and diplomatic acumen to fully bear upon Tromelin.
Based on the current trend, France is gradually losing its footing in Africa in the face of intense competition from emerging superpowers such China, Russia and India, to name but a few.
France has Mayotte, Reunion and several isles in this part of the world which can act as its pied-à-terre. The USA perhaps made a mistake by rubbing the French the wrong way through the ‘Aukus-Pokus’ on the submarine deal with Australia, thus shattering the image of a United Western Front to counter China.
Mauritius is poised to take center stage in global affairs as incumbent and emerging superpowers step up efforts to reign over the Indian Ocean. It will take a combination of diplomatic daintiness and geopolitical chutzpah to navigate across these murky waters and to optimize benefits accrued from being the Star and Key of the Indian Ocean.