ONE STEP BACK FOR TRUMP, TWO STEPS FORWARD FOR BIDEN
From 13 to 15 December 2022, the USA hosted the US-Africa Leaders Summit in Washington DC. Most of the 55 member states of the African Union (AU) were represented, but Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali and Sudan were allegedly taken off the guest list with the US Department of State citing “deficiencies in democracy and human rights.”
The event marked the second time that such a Summit is held and we have to rewind to 2014 during the Obama era to witness an event of similar magnitude geared towards Africa. Whereas Trump derisively dismissed the African continent, Biden appears to have upgraded Africa in the pecking order within the US foreign policy.
So, why the change of heart? Some, like The Economist magazine, undeniably took note of ‘Africa Rising.’ Some say, it is to counter the growing footprint and economic influence of China. Some even see ‘A New Scramble for Africa.’
Perhaps, they are all right, but the elephant in the room is arguably China. Actually, there appeared to be an omertà on the C-word with the notable exception of US Defense Secretary Austin who could not help mentioning the 800-lb panda breathing down America’s neck.
Africa: From ‘Hopeless Continent’ To Continent Of The Future
In 2000, The Economist put down Africa as the “Hopeless Continent”, painting a land ravaged by war, famine and other calamities. In 2018, then US President Trump went so far as to publicly disparage Africa, Haiti and El Salvador as “shithole countries”.
Then, in 2019, the Economist harked back to the Berlin Conference of 1884 and cautioned against ‘The New Scramble for Africa’ with some new big players. In 2021, I wrote a piece in the Forum Page of Le Mauricien entitled “L’Afrique n’est plus l’Afrique ” by quoting the words of the Côte d’Ivoire PM Patrick Achi taken from his keynote remarks at the French Entrepreneurs Meeting in Paris, an event aimed at recalibrating ties between France and Africa.
Why has the West changed its tune on Africa? First and foremost, the growth and size of Africa can no longer be ignored. By 2050, the population of Africa will reach 2.5 billion and one in four persons in the world will be African. Despite the Sahara desert making up most of its northern region, Africa has 60% of the world’s uncultivated arable land, which if sustainably exploited could feed the whole world.
Without critical minerals sourced from Africa, we would not be able to enjoy the comfort and convenience of modern life with electric vehicle, smartphones and other electronic devices.
To drum up support for the 2nd US-Africa Leaders Summit, State Secretary Antony Blinken toured Africa.
In an attempt to win back the hearts of African leaders, he pointed out that Africa is no longer a just piece on the global chessboard, but a geopolitical player in its own right.
At the US-Africa Leaders Summit, Secretary Blinken underscored that: “Africa is a major geopolitical force. It’s one that has shaped our past, it’s shaping our present, and it will shape our future.”
Prior to the start of the Summit, President Biden already signaled that he will support the membership of the AU among G20, which is sometimes described as ‘the club of countries which have arrived’. Similarly, at the UNGA77 in 2022, President Biden announced the support of US for Africa to have a permanent seat at the UNSC.
With ‘Africa Rising’, it is clear that its voice on international affairs will be heard and listened to more and more because without Africa global challenges cannot be addressed.
Us-China Rivalry And Rhetorical Escalation
In 2013, China put forward its One Belt, One Road (OBOR) initiative with a Eurasian-centric approach consisting of a Maritime Silk Road (MSR) and an Economic Silk Belt. At the beginning, Africa was almost an afterthought with only Djibouti and Kenya appearing as nodes on the MSR.
Realizing that it might have been an oversight, China evolved the OBOR into Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and invited all African countries to join the ‘high-speed train of development. Interestingly, a handful of countries, including Mauritius, preferred to sit on the fence despite its ‘great friendship’ with China.
In 2020, Biden won the US Presidential election on the strength of the Build Back Better (BBB) program. In a bid to extend BBB globally, he came up with Build Back Better World (B3W) and managed to secure the endorsement of the G7 for this ‘shared aspiration for a better world.’
Then, at UNGA76 in 2021, Xi unveiled the Global Development Initiative (GDI) by highlighting China as the engine of global economic growth and imparting a new impetus to the UN SDG.
China ramped up its rhetoric about the ‘Shared Destiny for Humankind’ while the USA turn up the propaganda on its ‘Shared Vision for a Better Future’.
“The US is all-in on Africa’s future,” stated Biden at the US-Africa Leaders Summit. To pursue the Texas Hold’em poker metaphor, the US is raising the stakes by pledging USD 55 billion for Africa in response to the USD 40 billion that China put out at FOCAC 2021.
To further reinforce ties with Africa, President Biden, Vice-President Harris and State Secretary Blinken all announced forthcoming visits to Africa in 2023.
Agoa Is (Almost) Dead, Long Live Usaufta
The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set to expire in 2025. Thus a ministerial meeting on AGOA was scheduled during of the US-Africa Leaders Summit 2022.
Among the questions discussed, we noted the following. Should AGOA be extended? Would the AGOA in its current shape and form be able to cover all African countries given their sheer diversity and varying levels of development?
Two schools of thought battle away on the matter. One school would like to see an extension of the AGOA. Another would like it to be upgraded to an US-AU Free Trade Agreement. The jury is still out and negotiations might well continue until the last minute.
Mauritius is one of the few countries in Africa which has greatly benefited from AGOA. At first sight, an extension might appear good for Mauritius. However, the AGOA targets lesser-developed countries by providing preferential access to the US market — assorted with certain eligibility criteria — to foster their economic and democratic development.
As Mauritius graduated to a high-income country by World Bank standards right before the COVID pandemic and will most likely regain its high-income status in the near future, it risks being left out of the AGOA.
Therefore, an evolution towards a continent-wide FTA with the USA might allow Mauritius to shine again in the spirit of promoting trade and investment. In any case, any new agreement should abide by the fundamental principles of inclusiveness, mutual benefit and arrived at through all round consultations in order that ‘no country is left behind’.
Mauritius As Preferred Trade And Investment Hub For Africa
For several decades, Mauritius has been selling itself as the gateway to the African continent, by positioning itself as the preferred Trade and Investment Hub for Africa. Mauritius is also a mature jurisdiction, with an excellent Business Climate as a result of its Good Governance, which adheres to democratic values and respects the rule of law.
Following my Concept Paper to build up Mauritius as a Green Finance Gateway in 2022, Mauritius has stepped up efforts to position itself as a Sustainable and Green International Financial Centre conforming to a good ESG framework.
The USA is and remains one of the largest sources of FDI around the world. In particular, Mauritius could be one of the jurisdictions where both private equity and institutional funds are leveraged and channeled into Africa and where deals are structured by taking advantage of the extensive DTAA and IPP networks that Mauritius has woven across Africa over the years.
When evaluated against the ‘Three-Legged Stool Model’, Mauritius probably comes up near the top with its relative Security, high level of Development and good Governance.
The Chagos issue is a black cloud which has dampened the relations between Mauritius and USA. Officially, the contention is between Mauritius and UK but Big Brother has a strong influence on its transatlantic ‘brother-in-arms.’
During the traditional end-of-year party with the diplomatic corps and in his message to the nation on 1st January 2023, the Mauritian PM Pravind Jugnauth noted ‘encouraging signs’ with talks restarting over the Chagos.
Another sign that the US will reinforce its presence in Mauritius is its plan to build a new Embassy complex on a land measuring 47,700 square metres in the Moka Smart City strategically located next to Bagatelle along the M1 motorway.
At the signing ceremony, the then US Ambassador David Reimer revealed that the US will invest more than USD 250 million in the project and stated the project is a ‘strong message’ that the USA is with Mauritius for the long term and that US and Mauritius enjoy strong economic and security partnerships.
In a previous opinion piece entitled “Disentangling the Chagossian Gordian Knot” published back in 2020, I went into some detail over certain questions which are likely to be raised as we embark on a pathway toward a negotiated settlement over Chagos.
In my view, how the Chagossian wind blows could be the litmus test and turn out to be the defining moment that cements USA as a global leader in terms of saying what it means, meaning what it says.
A mutually satisfactory dénouement ‘in line with international law’ would surely turn the page on the regrettable chapter on African colonization, place the US-Africa relations on a firmer footing and usher in a ‘New Era’ in Africa-USA relations.
January 2023